So here we are, and everyone is either ending up a bigoted self righteous dick or a bigoted self righteous dick. So here is my attempt to clear a few things up without sounding like a bigoted self righteous dick. There have been so many wonderful personal blogs and Facebook entries, that frankly I don’t really know how I can do any further justice other than to repeat them.

So I am not really going to do so, save to say a quick summary of what I consider the facts to be and then playout what happens afterwards in the event that the racists and self serving members of the right get their way and bamboozle us into voting out the the EU.

 

The Economy

I don’t really know where to start on the overall evidence on this? I cannot find any independent report or economic advisor that considers leaving the EU beneficial to the UK economy. Think about that for a moment, not one head of state, thinks this is a good idea, no economic advisors think this has value, including our own PM and advisors. Just consider this for a moment longer. We may say that they all have a vested interest but I guess that’s the point, there is a vested interest to the benefit of their countries and their ability to get re-elected, which is all they care about, so we know it’s important to them (Hahahahaha)

The only people that are suggesting that this might be a good thing, are a small number of business leaders. Think for a minute why a business leader might think that leaving the EU is in their interest? There are a great deal of labour laws and human rights encoded into the connections we have with the EU, these would be wiped out. There are regulations to prevent Hedge Funds (typically offshore and “tax efficient”) from behaving in a particular way. Think of the money, power and the investors in these funds, these are individuals of considerable wealth and influence, and some of the people that run huge businesses in the UK, set to gain from its departure from the EU. They will be fine regardless of the outcome in fact they will be wealthier regardless of what happens. These people and companies have the means of taking market positions in the uncertainty, as a result of their huge wealth and make profits (I am talking billions not millions) from just the uncertainty caused in the markets. They could really care less about our economy only their own.

If you have huge cash reserves and the stock market moves by 15%, you can buy stocks (shares in companies) at an artificially low level, reaping either dividends (shared profits from the company for shareholders) at a reduced price or growth in the stock, which you can then sell at a later date when it returns to its true value in a less volatile market. 15% movement when you have billions to invest is a lot of money. The same is true for Foreign Exchange markets, as they fluctuate, these incredibly rich people and companies move their money around the world, in and out of currencies, currently Sterling and Euro, to their benefit. For example the rate at which you buy Euro drops against Sterling and they sell in that direction. They then have more Euro they would previously have expected, and fluctuation occurs the other way, this means they can sell in the opposite direction and Hey Presto! They have more Sterling than they started with. This happening right now, just go and check the exchange rate fluctuations.

Wealth and Power do not care about you, the health service, or education. They care only for themselves and they are represented by the Leave campaign.

 

Membership Subsidies and Financing?

Highly contentious, a lot of misleading information. I can’t possibly convince anyone that my numbers are correct, versus their own beliefs. So I am going to try to resolve this by considering one of the areas where will not see any money being spent by our own government. But let me just set the context, this government is currently spending less money than any government since 1948. This is published by the office of national statistics. They campaigned on cuts, we have seen them, and now we feel them, this is not a government that spends or intends to spend, regardless of who leads it.

The money to which I am referring is money which institutions in this country apply to directly to the EU and from which they receive. These rebates are the difference between surviving and not. The much maligned Common Agricultural policy, driven by the French as they are basically an agricultural economy, provides subsidies to farmers and the ability to sell these products at a fair rate.

This involves some farmers being paid over the odds via subsidies for their goods, so that they can continue to produce them and the EU buys them, with a view to selling them forward, which it cannot sometimes achieve and surpluses are maintained. This is not ideal but our farmers are being paid, which means that these small business owners can survive, keep creating food and feed their families. This is going to take some thinking on your behalf, as it might seem odd, but the importance here is that we need a variety of food producers (we all need food and the world changes a lot!!!) and market pricing fluctuates so to have some control over pricing is critical for these farmers. There is no doubt the French are the largest beneficiaries, but the UK does pretty well out of this. Think of the difference this one thing makes to Jobs and our ability to have some level of independence for food production.

What will the Leave campaign do for these farmers? Will they help them in a larger market, will they pay these subsidies, I think this is unlikely as this organisation is led by people that want to reduce taxes and cut the state, they are monetarists who believe in the control of the money supply  and the free market is what matters. So guess what the free market will do?

This is one example, I could go on forever, there are countless scenarios of this type, is the UK government really going to address all of these, what kind of manpower would be needed to do so?

 

Immigration

Where do I even start with this? I cannot believe the words that keep coming out “I want my country back”, as far as I am concerned this is a thinly veiled racist remark. There is so much nonsense spoken about this subject that I was not even going to bother discussing it, but no post on the EU Referendum will be complete without a brief note. So here we go…..

1. Yes, people come into our country
2. They contribute in taxes in a net positive way (give more than they take – so as far as I am concerned they can use the services)
3. They fill and perform some important jobs where we either do not have the capacity, nurses, plumbers (yes plumbers) etc, or our own citizens won’t do the work, cleaners etc.
4. The vast majority of our immigration is non EU related, especially the stuff that people are really referring to, and that is completely in our control. 1m Turkish people won’t come into the UK, its fear mongering.
5. You are not a racist if you are concerned about people coming to our country
6. You are a racist if you think everyone that comes here is stealing our jobs, and using up our resources
7. British people live abroad too, they are typically older, pay less tax and use more resources, as they are retired and need more health services, just saying!
8. If you believe in what Nigel Farage is saying, then check yourself for a minute, see point 6
9. By the definition of the Leave campaign, I am an immigrant. I have never held another  passport, I have paid tax here my entire life, I went to boarding school for fuck’s sake and I even know all of the rules of cricket, but I did take a UK job and steal the odd UK woman or two (sorry couldn’t resist)
10. This country is built on diversity, it is built on the free flow of people, the melting pot of cultures and the mix of ideas, without it we would still be fighting the Scottish.
11. To remain as part of EFTA (European Free Trade Area – which allows us to trade with the EU the cornerstone of the Leave position)  we will have to accept free movement, as a foundation, except we won’t be able to make decisions on it because we won’t be part of the EU.
12. If you can’t find it in your heart to take in Syrian refugees, from a war we have stoked and “helped” by bombing, then shame on you. You don’t deserve the benefits of democracy and this country.

 

The Law & Sovereignty

This section is a summary of an excellent video by Michael Dougan, a Professor at the University of Liverpool Law department. This is in some ways the most important aspect. There is so much, I have included the link, but here is the summary.

1. We are a leading power in one of the most important organisations on the planet, we are one of the big 3 with France and Germany.
2. Yes, I have moved to bullet points, what of it!!!???
3. The UK is a sovereign state, Parliament is the supreme law making body of the land. The EU is not sovereign entity it has only the powers given to it by national governments under the EU treaty. Our parliament enables them via our own legislation. Power and independence from the EU is just theoretical
4. This is not a debate between the UK and the EU, patently mental, we are Europe. Virtually nothing happens in the EU without UK, France and Germany being involved.
5. The EU is not run by bureaucrats, it is run by the 28 member countries working together and the European parliament of MEPs, all of whom are elected. 90% of EU decisions are made by consensus, we cooperate and its important that changes serve the national interest of all states. Only 10% is done by voting.
6. There is a lot of evidence that is indisputable about the impact to the UK. The Balance of Competencies review about how a state is affected by membership, which is one of the largest ever studies carried out globally, and the largest research exercise taken on by the UK civil service, collecting evidence from all sectors, the public and across the board. 2,300 pieces of evidences, and several hundreds of collective meetings. 32 large final reports we published covering all aspects. Overwhelmingly there is a view that there is a benefit to being a member of the EU.
7. The EU is not perfect, but there are huge benefits that outweight all other aspects.

Professor Michael Dougan, Professor of Law University of Liverpool (<<< YouTube link)

 

What happens next

No one has a clue about what will happen when we leave, not a single idea, it’s a lie. The following section is a mix of Professor Dougan’s key areas and my twisted views (well I wrote this so I am going to do as I please, feel free to write your own and do the same)

1. Comprehensive review of the UK legal system – for 40 years we have built our law in conjunction with the EU, and this will be an enormous task to change and review, on a technical level. This will have to be done at pace and it will be impossible to be done through parliament. The consensus is that this will be done via an significant delegation of power from parliament to the government and the government will take enormous decisions about UK law, pretty much unchecked. The majority of UK legislation will be affected.

So just we are clear, this will not be democratic. If Cameron loses the EU Referendum, there will be a vote of no confidence in him, fair enough. Then there will be an election (in the conservative party, you’re not involved in this bit – this is how democracy works). Boris Johnson is the most likely candidate to become leader of the conservative party, because lets be clear this is the subtext of the referendum, why do you think one the Prime Minster’s dearest friends and old school chum hasn’t taken a cabinet job. Yes he was mayor, but seriously think it through.

So Boris then becomes an unelected prime minster, for 3 years, nothing unusual (see Gordon Brown …… errrrr oh dear), except that he will be responsible for the wholesale rewriting of our entire legal system as it is outsourced by parliament. Suddenly things don’t feel that democratic. In case you are confused, this means an unelected Prime Minster, with no mandate for such wholesale change will rewrite the legal infrastructure of our country with his chums affecting every part of our legislation. Bet you hadn’t even considered that (yes I am rather pleased with myself on this one….)

Ultimately the argument to leave the EU because it is undemocratic, and we can vote out our government if they let us down is a flawed one. We are deluding ourselves, all we will be doing is putting our prosperity in the hands of less and less people. People who are driven by their own agenda. They don’t care about you, they care about what gets them more. They all are like this, both sides, but we can benefit personally from remaining, the only people that benefit from leaving are the most wealthy.

2. Externally we will need to reform our relationships with the EU, the 2 year period for the divorce settlement is just that, how we leave the EU, but this is separate from the framework agreement with the EU going forward. The main question is what do we do with the 3m EU nationals in the UK and the 2M UK nationals in the EU. This affects UK citizens, how generous do you think other countries will be? So guess what,not only will we “be taking back our country” so will everyone else. The rise of the right and xenophobia are not restricted to the UK.

New negotiations for the framework agreement will take a minimum of 10 years based on previous agreement negotiations and even that is generous. The Swiss signed their framework in 1972 and not yet finalised as they have to continue to create bilateral agreements to address specific issues.

The single market is the most advanced trade agreement on the planet, because it addresses the fundamentals of regulatory barriers. E.g. I make computers in the UK, before I can sell them anywhere else, that country says you haven’t built them to our national laws. The Single Market resolves this, it’s the holy grail. This means different markets have different requirements which is to be expected, but through massive negotiations and years of investment we have organised a set of rules that get over this, this is the essence of the single market. Nothing else on the planet enables this or comes close to enable us to sell product everywhere. We want to leave this???? This regulatory passport happens across the board, through finance, manufacturing and professional services.

So essentially we would be Norway, we would be members of the single market without being members of the EU, this is not a great position, even the Norwegian government said as much in their Balance of Competencies review. We would have to do what the EU says and we would not have the ability to influence it one bit, oh yeah we would need to pay a massive big membership fee. Hang on a minute!!!! You mean we would have to pay a fee to access the single market…..and accept their terms to trade with them? Well this seems pretty straightforward, but it seems similar to what we have without the influence. But the main issue here is that the EU may not offer this to us, because at the heart of this agreement would be the Free Movement of Persons as an integral part of the single market, and the Leave campaign have said this will not be possible. Ooops……did anyone else notice this? Bye bye single market access.

So our options are do what others do, a shallower agreement with the EU (Countries like Mexico and Switzerland etc, what great company we are keeping here) which is simpler to manage, but does not address any of these requirements and still leaves us outside the regulatory barriers. Or we don’t go for anything, and go for the fundamentals set by the WTO (World Trade Organisation) for free International Trade, and what we are talking about is the basics. Regardless we will not be able to passport our goods and services into the single market, and it is for this reason that pretty much all economic advisors believe this will not be beneficial to the UK economy. A pretty simple point. DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULLSHIT YOU ARE BEING PEDDLED, this isn’t going to be easy.

3. Leaving the EU will terminate all agreements with 3rd party countries outside the EU, because they have all been agreed through the EU. We will be free to trade with everyone else, but what kind of logistics are needed to do this, how many diplomats will be required, how many resources?  We are an open economy already, but as a trade strategy, we bargain access to other European markets and the single market through us we to access other peoples markets. We are really good at this and the value of the UK to countries like the USA is exactly this, Obama said so himself. If we are not part of the single market, we have nothing to offer. As a great trading nation, with access to the single market we are an asset.

Most countries will not do a bilateral agreement with us until they are clear what our and their agreement with EU will be. This is the official position of US, India and China, to name just 3 economies. Absolute insanity!!!! if we are not part of the EU then we have no leverage, if we remain part of the Single market then we have to pretty do what we do now with no influence, so whats the fucking point!!!!

This is about power, not the Power of the UK, but power over the UK. This is about Wealth, not some money, but a lot of money, more money than you could possibly imagine. And somehow about 50% of us are falling for this shit, despite that fact that actually we will be worse off and not able to participate in the upside, the very richest are experts in exclusion, they are experts in the concentration of the power and money. Michael Dougan is a genuine expert, and he puts his argument simply, it beggars belief that a first year law student knows this but somehow the British public does not.

I know it’s attractive to take an inductive view that somehow we will be “Great Again” or whatever it is you believe in, but this is simply an act of faith. The deduction of the stages outlined here is a much clearer indicator as to the challenges ahead. This is not intended to smear or create fear, but a perspective that is based on experts. Believe what you want, but be armed with the widest possible views.

By leaving we are open to huge risks, to remain we can create change, it’s not too complicated and it’s not yet too late.